general
A 92.1% student visa grant rate is not an individual promise: questions to ask your adviser
The official 2026-27 cohort to 31 August 2026 shows a 92.1% grant rate for primary China applicants outside Australia, and this article sets out the questions to ask an adviser before you rely on any figure.
For primary visa applicants from China (excluding SARs) who lodged from outside Australia, the official table shows a 92.1% grant rate for the 2026-27 cohort to 31 August 2026. That is a group figure. It cannot tell you what will happen to your application, and no adviser can honestly promise you the same result.
What the 92.1% figure measures
The grant rate is calculated as granted decisions divided by granted plus refused decisions for the selected cohort. In this cohort:
- Primary applicants granted: 7,700
- Primary applicants refused: 657
- Total decided: 8,357
- Grant rate: 92.1%
Across all applicant types in the same filtered table, the rate is 91.9% (7,864 granted, 692 refused, 8,556 decided).
The figure has three limits you should keep in mind:
- It applies only to visa decisions. It says nothing about course places, offers or enrolment.
- It is filtered by applicant type, location and citizenship. Change any of those and the number changes.
- The cohort runs to 31 August 2026, so it is a partial period, not a full-year result.
Why it is not a personal promise
A grant rate describes many files over a period. Your file has its own documents, study history, finances, health and character checks, and its own timing. The rate does not measure any of those things for you. Treat it as background, not as a forecast.
How the rate has moved over time
The table below shows the primary-applicant grant rate for each cohort in the official table, rounded to one decimal place.
| Cohort | Primary grant rate |
|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 97.6% |
| 2017-18 | 97.0% |
| 2018-19 | 94.2% |
| 2019-20 | 98.1% |
| 2020-21 | 98.5% |
| 2021-22 | 98.0% |
| 2022-23 | 93.2% |
| 2023-24 | 94.5% |
| 2024-25 | 93.6% |
| 2025-26 | 95.2% |
| 2026-27 to 31 August 2026 | 92.1% |
The rate has moved by several percentage points from one cohort to the next. That movement is the reason a single year’s figure should not be read as a guarantee, in either direction. The official material does not explain why any cohort moved, so do not assume a cause.
Course starts are not the same as students
If you also read the education data, note the definition used there. A commencement is a course enrolment that starts during the calendar year. It is not a count of unique people, so one student can appear more than once across courses or periods. The education and visa tables also use different scopes, and the visa filters do not apply to education figures. The reporting period for the education data is June 2026, which is not a verified publication date.
Questions to ask your adviser
Use these questions to separate what an adviser can do from what only the Department can decide.
- Do you promise any visa outcome in writing? A reputable adviser should say no.
- Which parts of my application will you prepare, and which parts must I prepare myself?
- Who checks my documents, and what is each person’s role?
- Can you show the fee and refund terms in writing before I pay anything?
- If my application is refused, what support is included, and what would cost extra?
- Are you registered or licensed for this work? If so, can I check the registration myself on the official register?
- Who signs the agreement, and how are changes to scope or fees handled?
- How often will you update me, and through which channel?
If an answer is vague, ask again in writing. A clear answer should appear in your agreement, not only in conversation.